v1.3.03 loop iterations

Revenue Forecaster

Most revenue projections are either napkin maths or untouched spreadsheets — the dangerous middle ground is gut feeling. The Revenue Forecaster builds three scenarios with explicit assumptions, so you see exactly what has to be true for each number to land.

What this skill does

Most revenue forecasts collapse on first contact with reality because they hide their assumptions. A single number — "we'll be at £45K by December" — looks confident and tells you nothing about what has to be true for that to happen. This skill works the other way around. Three scenarios, each with its growth, churn, and pipeline assumptions named explicitly, so a missed assumption costs you a row in the table rather than the whole plan.

The model adapts to how money actually comes in. Recurring revenue (SaaS, memberships, retainers) uses MRR, growth rate, churn, and net revenue retention. Project-based work uses average project value, monthly volume, close rate, and repeat percentage — and the pipeline gets discounted by historical close rate rather than counted at face value. Product and e-commerce use AOV, order volume trend, and repeat purchase rate. Multi-stream businesses get separate models per stream because a blended growth rate hides which stream is actually driving everything.

Conservative is the planning scenario. Growth halved or zeroed if it's been inconsistent. Churn at 1.5x current. Pipeline counted only above 75% probability. No new channels, no new initiatives. This is the scenario you make hiring, lease, and tool-commitment decisions against — beating it is celebration; missing it is structural. Base is what to manage toward; optimistic exists for motivation, not planning. The skill labels the difference loudly because the most common forecasting mistake is committing to a hire on the optimistic scenario.

Two things the skill refuses to do. It won't forecast beyond what the data supports — three months of data caps the forecast at six months, and a 12-month projection on six months of data gets labelled speculative. And it won't reverse-engineer a target. Asked to "show us hitting £1M ARR," it calculates the growth rate that requires and lets the user judge whether it's realistic — "to hit £1M ARR you need 11% monthly growth sustained for 14 months" — rather than producing a smooth curve that ends where you wanted it to.

This is a planning model and a structured way to frame decisions, not financial advice. Final calls on hiring, fundraising, debt, or major spend should be reviewed by an accountant or financial adviser who has the full picture of your business and personal circumstances. The forecast surfaces options; the decisions belong with someone qualified to sign off on them.

When this triggers

·You're modelling whether you can afford a hire and need a forecast you'd actually plan against
·You want to know which month you hit £10K/£50K/£100K MRR under realistic vs optimistic assumptions
·Your gut says you're growing but the trailing data looks flatter than you remember
·You're a freelancer or agency with lumpy income and want a projection that doesn't lie about that
·You need a forecast that survives an investor or lender asking 'what if your biggest client leaves?'

Example

Trigger

User: 'SaaS. £18K MRR. Grew from £11K six months ago. ~4% monthly churn. £42K cash. £19K/month burn. Can I sustain 12 more months?'

Output

CURRENT STATE MRR: £18,000 Trailing 6-month growth: median 8.5%/month Churn: 4.0% (annualised ~39% — flag, that's high) Burn: £19,000/month — net £1K/month negative Cash: £42K → ~7 months runway at current spend 12-MONTH FORECAST | Month | Conservative | Base | Optimistic | |-------|-------------|------|------------| | M3 | £19,200 | £20,800 | £22,600 | | M6 | £20,400 | £24,100 | £28,400 | | M9 | £21,200 | £27,800 | £35,700 | | M12 | £21,600 | £32,000 | £44,800 | ASSUMPTIONS Conservative: 4% growth, 6% churn (1.5x current), no new initiatives. Base: 8.5% growth (current median), 4% churn (current). Optimistic: 9% growth, 3% churn, one retention initiative landing. KEY MILESTONES Cash-flow positive (burn covered by MRR): · Conservative: not within 12 months · Base: month 4 · Optimistic: month 2 DECISIONS THIS ENABLES · Plan against Conservative. The hire conversation should wait until MRR holds above £22K for 3 consecutive months. · Churn at 4% is the bigger problem than growth. A 1pp churn improvement adds ~£3,400/yr by M12 in the base case. · If cash hits £20K with Conservative growth still tracking, raise or cut burn — don't wait for the optimistic case. RISKS TO THE FORECAST 1. Top 3 customers = ~30% of MRR (concentration unverified — confirm). Any one churning shifts you 2 months later. 2. 6 months of data is short. Real seasonality not yet visible. This is a planning model, not financial advice. Use it to frame decisions and to test scenarios — final hiring, fundraising, and spend calls should be reviewed by an accountant or adviser against your full picture.

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What you get

166-line SKILL.md, ready to drop into ~/.claude/skills/
Tested through 3 Karpathy-loop iterations (versions v1.0.0 → v1.3.0)
Triggers automatically when relevant — no command to remember
Lifetime updates as the skill is refined further